Sunday, June 28, 2009

The Best Day on the Tennis Calendar - Fourth Round Preview

The best ticket available in the world of tennis, the second Monday is one of two days on the tennis calendar where both the Gentlemen's and Ladies' draws converge on the dame day, the other being Super Saturday at the US Open. But while Super Saturday features only three matches and six players, the second Monday of Wimbledon features every Round of 16 match in both the men's and women's draw. Stars normally guaranteed a spot on one of the two main stadiums are relegated to outer courts, giving fans a chance to see big stars with just a grounds pass.

I made it out to Wimbledon on the second Monday last year, and with my grounds pass got to see Venus Williams, Serena Williams, Elena Dementieva, Arnaud Clement, Marin Cilic, Shahar Peer, and Dinara Safina, capping my day off by being one of the five or so on Henman Hill pulling for Richard Gasquet against Andy Murray. Quite the day for £14 (plus £3 or so for strawberries and cream).

Here's what's on tap for this year's best tennis day of the year:

CENTRE - SHOW COURT - 1.00 PM START

1. Robin Soderling (SWE) [13] 113 vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2] 128
For a player whose big breakout tournament came on the terre battue, Robin Soderling's game is totally built for grass. Featuring power and more power, I expect him to smack a lot of winners past Federer in between moments of being thoroughly outclassed.
Prediction: Federer in four.

2. Dinara Safina (RUS) [1] 1 vs Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) [17] 9
The marquee matchup on the women's side today sees top Dinara Safina play on Centre court for the first time this tournament. She faces 2006 Champion Amelie Mauresmo, who always brings her best tennis (if not her strongest nerves) to the All-England Club. Safina has looked shaky at best through the first week of the tournament, while Mauresmo has looked calm and in control throughout. I like the Frenchwoman to blitz the hollow top-seed in two jarringly vicious sets.
Prediction: Mauresmo in two.

3. Andy Murray (GBR) [3] 33 vs Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) [19] 41
The Brits have got to be loving the draw that has fallen at Andy Murray's feet through these first four rounds. And if he does make it through the fourth round, his quarterfinal opponent from the winner of Ferrero-Simon shouldn't prove too challenging either. Onward toward the semifinal he marches.
Prediction: Murray in three.

COURT 1 - SHOW COURT - 1.00 PM START

1. Venus Williams (USA) [3] 33 vs Ana Ivanovic (SRB) [13] 48
A rematch of the 2007 Wimbledon semifinal, this match will be a testament to just how far Ivanovic has fallen. Ivanovic played by far her best match of the year in beating Sam Stosur in the third round, a match that I can only explain by calling it a strange fluke. Ivanovic hasn't made a grand slam quarterfinal since she won the 2008 French Open, and there's no way that streak is ending against Venus Williams.
Prediction: Williams in 2.

2. Fernando Verdasco (ESP) [7] 97 vs Ivo Karlovic (CRO) [22] 105
As ugly and hard to watch as his game is, it's kind of refreshing to see Ivo Karlovic's serve blowing its way through the draw, taking down popular darkhorse J0-Wilfried Tsonga with it. Karlovic's game has a way of keeping players honest, and if his opponent doesn't play well he will lose, no matter how good he is (see also Federer Cincinnati 2008). Verdasco has been impressive thus far, but his mental struggles of yore are not completely behind him. I like Ivo to pull off the frustrating upset here, with a classic Verdasco breakdown left in the fifth.
Prediction: Karlovic in five.

3. Tomas Berdych (CZE) [20] 24 vs Andy Roddick (USA) [6] 32
This is the kind of matchup Andy Roddick loves to see in the middle of a slam. A mentally suspect player without a lot of variety, Tomas Berdych will hold serve a bunch, but is unlikely to pose any longterm threat.
Prediction: Roddick in three.

COURT 2 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Elena Vesnina (RUS) 86 vs Elena Dementieva (RUS) [4] 96
Probably the most under the radar of any of the sixteen women remaining, Elena Dementieva has quietly played some seriously ass-kicking tennis, earning a breadstick in each of her three matches so far. Vesnina is a nice draw, and a surprising fourth rounder on grass. Dementieva should get through easily, and make an impressive third quarterfinal at Wimbledon, despite it being on what should be her worst surface.
Prediction: Dementieva in two easy sets.

2. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 115 vs Serena Williams (USA) [2] 128
A rematch of their d-r-a-m-a filled fourth round match in 2007, this should be a pretty routine match for an in-shape, in-form Serena, neither of which she was in 2007. Good showing by Daniela to make it this far.
Prediction: Serena in two.

3. Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 3 vs Radek Stepanek (CZE) [23] 9
One of the most consistently underrated players on the ATP Tour (probably due to his grave lack of charisma), Radek Stepanek has played great grasss court tennis before, and may very well surprise those who penciled Hewitt in to the quarters as soon as he beat Del Potro. This will be a tough loss for whoever comes out on the wrong end--it's a winnable match for both.
Prediction: Stepanek in four.

COURT 3 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [8] 97 vs Nadia Petrova (RUS) [10] 112
What should be a good match on paper should go to the Banshee of Belarus relatively easily, I would think. Azarenka has been steamrolling her way through the competition, and though she's had some underwhelming losses on big stages, I like her chances of crushing Petrova.
Prediction: Azarenka in two.

2. Dudi Sela (ISR) 85 vs Novak Djokovic (SRB) [4] 96
Novak Djokovic, like his opposite number Dementieva, largely flew under the radar through the first week. After a tough first rounder vs. capable grass courter Julien Benneteau, Djokovic looked very special in fending off a popular upset special from Mardy Fish. Dudi Sela is a fun player who has had a fun tournament, but it's largely the result of a soft draw, and reality should crash in vs. Djokovic.
Prediction: Djokovic in three.

3. Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 53 vs Gilles Simon (FRA) [8] 64
A rare battle of lightweights late at Wimbledon, this match is a test of Ferrero's fitness as much as anything. And with his lack of runs in recent majors, I have to think that Ferrero won't be nearly as fresh as his younger opponent. Could be an underwhelming end to a nice run for Ferrero.
Prediction: Simon in four.

COURT 4 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Igor Andreev (RUS) [29] 72 vs Tommy Haas (GER) [24] 73
I'm at a loss for how Igor Andreev's game has been able to hold up this well on grass. With his big windmill forehand, I can't imagine it's an easy transition for him to the faster surface. Tommy Haas, on the other hand, has been playing some of the most solid tennis of his career, and should match up very well against Andreev.
Prediction: Haas in three.

2. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [9] 17 vs Sabine Lisicki (GER) 26
This is a tough match to get a read on. Wozniacki has had some strange losses at majors, making unseeded dreams come true so by crashing out to Dokic and Cirstea at the first two majors of the year. Lisicki has played some utterly fearless tennis so far, but she does it with a recklessness that makes me think the wheels will fall off without notice. So who knows.
Prediction: Lisicki in three.

COURT 18 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [11] 49 vs Melanie Oudin (USA) 58
Melanie Oudin seems to feed off power and not deal very well with variety. Those two factors could conspire to make it a short day at the office for the perky American qualifier from Marietta, GA. Radwanska, for a player completely devoid of power, has had some very impressive grass results in her short career, including a quarterfinal at Wimbledon last year and the 2008 Eastbourne title.
Prediction: Radwanska in two.

2. Virginie Razzano (FRA) [26] 72 vs Francesca Schiavone (ITA) 74
A battle between two entertaining, scrappy players (if not necessarily cover girls), I go with Razzano, whose game seems more suited to grass than the quick yet relatively punchless Schiavone.
Prediction:
Razzano in two.

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